TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 8:31 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent, measured by specific goal differences. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different margins of victory for both teams in a professional Japan J1 League soccer match scheduled for August 22, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Nagoya winning by more than 2.5 goals, Nagoya winning by more than 1.5 goals, Gamba winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Gamba winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team achieves the required goal differential; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi for this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to unique trader dynamics and liquidity conditions. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytical models and risk management, prediction markets let participants bet directly on outcomes, which can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on trader sentiment and volume. Comparing the two provides a view into whether the crowd sees value differently than established sportsbooks, especially as match-day approaches.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score difference will determine which side of the spread is correct, and the market will close based on official match results reported through standard public channels.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or recent performance trends could shift this market as the match nears. Traders will react to practice reports, media commentary, and any last-minute lineup announcements. Weather conditions or tactical adjustments on game day may also influence expectations for the spread, causing rapid price movements among participants on Kalshi.