TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 18,122,618
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 18,122,618 - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved May 30, 2026
Closed: May 30, 4:52 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether The Weeknd's My Dear Melancholy, will accumulate more than 18,122,618 streams during the May 22–28 tracking week. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 47.5%. Resolution will be determined by Luminate's official worldwide streaming count for that specific week. Watch the project's streaming performance during the May 22–28 tracking period to see if it crosses the 18.1 million threshold.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary contract: Will My Dear Melancholy, by The Weeknd have above 18,122,618 streams on Luminate from May 22–28? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where each cent represents a 1% probability. The current market price reflects the collective belief of all active traders on Kalshi. As new information emerges—such as playlist adds, chart performance, or social momentum—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. Volume and bid-ask spreads indicate market liquidity and confidence in the outcome.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by official Luminate streaming data for The Weeknd's 'My Dear Melancholy,' during the May 22–28 measurement period. The contract settles based on whether the track achieves above or below the 18,122,618 stream threshold. Luminate (formerly MRC Data) is the authoritative source for streaming metrics used by the music industry, ensuring an objective, verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor Luminate's official reports and The Weeknd's streaming performance throughout the tracking week to assess the likelihood of the threshold being exceeded.
Several catalysts could shift market odds before resolution. Playlist placements on major DSP editorial playlists (Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music) would boost visibility and streams. Chart debuts or peaks on Billboard Hot 100 or Streaming Songs charts signal momentum. Social media virality, TikTok adoption, or celebrity endorsements can drive listener engagement. Competing releases or major artist announcements may divert listener attention. Radio airplay and media coverage also influence streaming volume. Real-time streaming data leaks or industry reports during the May 22–28 window could prompt traders to reprice their positions. Monitoring these entertainment and streaming signals helps traders anticipate outcome probability shifts.
