TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima
polymarket
kalshi

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima

Volume:
$1,399,089

Taylor Fritz

 - Kalshi

Taylor Fritz - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 3:41 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Taylor Fritz

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$98,443
N/A
N/A
$57,641
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$608
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,139,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rafael Jodar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$111,820
N/A
N/A
$78,164
Settled
No
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Brandon Nakashima

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,328
N/A
N/A
$5,710
Settled
No
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ben Shelton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,437
N/A
N/A
$2,733
Settled
No
kalshi

Alejandro Tabilo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,481
N/A
N/A
$2,274
Settled
No
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lorenzo Musetti

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,715
N/A
N/A
$1,269
Settled
No
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$949
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Alex de Minaur

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$683
N/A
N/A
$628
Settled
No
kalshi

Jakub Mensik

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
$368
Settled
No
kalshi

Terence Atmane

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
$196
Settled
No
kalshi

Alex Michelsen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
$91
Settled
No
kalshi

Cruz Hewitt

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
No
kalshi

Ugo Humbert

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Adrian Mannarino

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

Kamil Majchrzak

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

Aleksandar Vukic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

Kei Nishikori

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Intro

This market tracks whether Taylor Fritz will win the 2026 ATP Washington professional tennis tournament, with an aggregated consensus probability of 90.0%. The platforms aggregated are Polymarket and Kalshi, and the resolution source specifies that if Taylor Fritz wins the tournament, the market resolves to Yes. A key catalyst to watch will be the end of the tournament window on August 22, 2026. Rafael Jodar trails with a probability of 5.0%.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental scope difference between tournament winner (Kalshi) and head-to-head match outcome (Polymarket)Hero tip: Traders should recognize that these are fundamentally different markets. Kalshi's market will resolve based on the overall tournament winner, while Polymarket resolves based solely on the outcome between de Minaur and Nakashima. Betting on one does not imply the same outcome for the other.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes if any of 16 listed players (including de Minaur and Nakashima) win the 2026 ATP Washington tournament
  • Polymarket: Market resolves to 'Alex de Minaur' if he advances against Nakashima, 'Brandon Nakashima' if he advances, and 50-50 or 'No' for various incomplete/canceled scenarios
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Brandon Nakashima in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific tennis player competing in the 2026 ATP Washington professional tennis tournament. The market resolves to Yes only if the named participant wins the tournament outright. If the participant forfeits, withdraws, or takes any official action that prevents them from winning, the market resolves to No for that player. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each listed competitor.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the DC Open tennis match market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume trends for this event. It displays how traders across platforms view the chances of each outcome, with total volume at $1,399,089 and 24-hour volume at $1,303,245. This unified view helps users monitor consensus and spot shifts in sentiment as the tournament progresses.