TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 6:11 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Patrick Zahraj and Karl Poling in the Mouilleron-le-Captif, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Patrick Zahraj' if Patrick Zahraj advances against Karl Poling. This market will resolve to 'Karl Poling' if Karl Poling advances against Patrick Zahraj. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Patrick Zahraj and Karl Poling in the Mouilleron-le-Captif, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Patrick Zahraj' if Patrick Zahraj advances against Karl Poling. This market will resolve to 'Karl Poling' if Karl Poling advances against Patrick Zahraj. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different set of information and incentives than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective predictions of informed traders. As a result, you may find discrepancies between the implied probabilities on Polymarket and those offered by sportsbooks. These differences can arise from varying levels of expertise, access to information, or simply differing opinions about the likely outcome of the Zahraj vs Poling match. It's useful to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Zahraj vs Poling match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence. Trading volume influences how quickly prices adjust to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Zahraj vs Poling match, as declared by the governing body or official tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the event’s progress leading up to this date.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player form, injuries to either Patrick Zahraj or Karl Poling, or changes in coaching strategies could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to the event might also shift perceptions of each player’s chances. Public statements from analysts or experts offering their predictions could also impact trading activity. Finally, large volume trades on Polymarket themselves can act as signals, potentially indicating informed traders taking positions based on non-public information.