TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Motherwell and Aberdeen, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets that resolve based on the goal differential between Motherwell and Aberdeen in their scheduled Scottish Premiership match on September 15, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for resolution: Motherwell must win by more than 2.5 goals, Motherwell must win by more than 1.5 goals, Aberdeen must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Aberdeen must win by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions occur after the full 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The outcome hinges exclusively on the numerical goal difference, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks and branding.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the perceived public’s betting tendencies, while this market is driven by individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant news or events affecting the teams. Examining these differences can be insightful for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember both represent probabilities of the same event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Motherwell vs Aberdeen match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood. The goal is to converge towards the true probability as the event approaches, based on the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Motherwell vs Aberdeen match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing football authorities. The market will determine whether Motherwell wins by more than 1.5 goals, or if another outcome occurs. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual outcome of the match, allowing traders to realize their profits or losses.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team formations, or tactical adjustments announced by either Motherwell or Aberdeen could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even significant media coverage influencing public perception, could also play a role. Furthermore, major upsets in other relevant football matches could indirectly affect sentiment and trading volume in this market, as traders reassess probabilities.