TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 4M
- Kalshi
Above 4M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 26, 2026
Closed: Sep 25, 9:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Morgan Wallen's YouTube view performance on a specific future date, allowing participants to speculate on whether his global daily views will surpass various thresholds. Outcomes depend on actual view counts measured through a standardized method. This provides a real-time gauge of public interest and engagement with the artist's content.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on Morgan Wallen's global daily YouTube views on September 24, 2026, measured using data displayed from a New York IP address through YouTube Charts with the "Global" location selected. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the view count exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. All markets explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these products, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive without implying affiliation or endorsement. The consistent secondary rules across all markets ensure uniform measurement methodology and disclaimer compliance for all outcome determinations.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for entertainment viewership. While analysts often provide estimates, they typically don’t offer the same continuously updated, quantified probabilities found here. The market represents a collective intelligence, aggregating the insights of many traders, and can dynamically adjust to new information in a way that static analyst predictions often cannot. This market provides a unique perspective on potential outcomes, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective belief about the event's likelihood. The current prices are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand for a particular outcome increasing its price and, conversely, decreasing the price of other outcomes.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for Morgan Wallen’s September 24, 2026 performance is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual view count achieved, and traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution. The market will close prior to this date to allow for a clear determination of the outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding Morgan Wallen’s promotional activities, album releases, or public appearances leading up to the performance could shift expectations. Changes in the broader entertainment landscape, such as major competing events or shifts in streaming platform viewership trends, could also play a role. Furthermore, unexpected events impacting his ability to perform, or changes to the broadcast schedule, would likely cause substantial movement in this market.
