TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 4M
- Kalshi
Above 4M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Closed: Sep 25, 12:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a popular musician on a specific date, measuring how many times their content is viewed globally on a major video platform. The outcome depends on whether the view count surpasses certain thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and interest.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Morgan Wallen achieves specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube for September 23, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. All markets use the same resolution methodology: view counts will be determined using data displayed from a New York IP address via YouTube Charts, with "Global" selected as the location filter. The markets explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these products, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the event operator. The consistency across all rules ensures uniform application of data sourcing and endorsement disclaimers for all threshold-based outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this event. While analysts may offer predictions on the number of views Morgan Wallen will receive, these are often qualitative or based on limited data. This market, however, aggregates the informed opinions of many traders, creating a quantitative assessment of probability. Discrepancies between the two could indicate that the market believes factors not considered by analysts will significantly impact the outcome, or vice versa. It’s important to remember that both represent different forms of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, driven by new information and trader sentiment. The closer we get to the event date, the more the price will likely reflect the actual expected views. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views for Morgan Wallen’s performance will be sourced from publicly available data and verified against credible sources. The market will settle based on this verified number, determining which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders should monitor news and official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential factors that could influence the final outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding Morgan Wallen’s performance schedule, promotional activities, or media appearances could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected events, such as changes in television programming or major competing events, could also impact viewership. Positive or negative critical reception of the performance, or viral moments related to it, could also drive trading activity. Finally, any official announcements regarding viewership numbers or streaming data leading up to Sep 27, 2026 will likely cause significant price adjustments in this market.
