TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 4M
- Kalshi
Above 4M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Closed: Sep 20, 10:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Morgan Wallen's YouTube view performance on a specific date, offering multiple thresholds for view counts. Participants can speculate on whether the artist's global daily views will surpass various milestones, with each threshold representing a different level of audience engagement.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on Morgan Wallen's global daily YouTube view count on September 19, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the view count exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. View counts are obtained through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting the "Global" location filter. Neither these markets nor the associated products are endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive without implying affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on historical data and industry trends, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders who are actively assessing a wide range of information, including social media buzz, pre-save numbers, and streaming data. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market may anticipate unexpected surges or declines in viewership based on factors not fully captured by conventional analysis. It's a real-time assessment of likely outcomes, distinct from static predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different view counts for the Morgan Wallen performance. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information and evolving sentiment, making it a dynamic indicator of expectations. Essentially, the price indicates the probability of that view count being realized.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, publicly released view count for the Morgan Wallen performance on September 19, 2026. The exact source will be determined by Kalshi to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the resolved outcome, reflecting the collective prediction of the market.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding the performance, such as guest appearances or promotional campaigns, would likely impact trading activity. Shifts in Morgan Wallen’s popularity, as indicated by streaming numbers or social media engagement, could also drive price changes. Unexpected news events affecting the entertainment industry or consumer behavior could also play a role. Finally, any pre-release data regarding ticket sales or pre-save numbers will be closely watched by traders and could cause substantial shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.
