TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 4M
- Kalshi
Above 4M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 16, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 16, 6:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Morgan Wallen's YouTube view performance on a specific date, allowing participants to speculate on whether his global daily views will surpass various thresholds. Outcomes depend on the total number of views his content receives from a New York IP address perspective on that day.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on Morgan Wallen's global daily YouTube views on September 14, 2026, measured using data displayed from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. If the recorded view count exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. View counts are accessed via YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location. Neither these markets nor the associated products are endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a unique perspective, incorporating a wider range of information and potential scenarios than traditional analysis might capture. While analysts may offer specific predictions based on established metrics, the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many participants, potentially identifying overlooked factors. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement regarding the likely outcome of the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined by supply and demand; if more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of the corresponding contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views for Morgan Wallen’s release will be sourced from publicly available data and verified against credible sources. The resolution will be based on the official view count as reported by the relevant platform, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event's outcome. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the data is confirmed.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding Morgan Wallen’s promotional activities, such as major media appearances or collaborations, could influence expectations. Unexpected shifts in social media trends or viral challenges related to his music could also drive trading activity. Furthermore, any controversies or positive press surrounding the artist could impact the perceived likelihood of high view counts. Changes in streaming platform algorithms or the release of competing music could also play a role in how this market behaves.
