TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 4.75M
- Kalshi
Above 4.75M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 13, 12:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Morgan Wallen's YouTube view counts over a specific week, resolving based on whether his daily views surpass various thresholds. Participants can speculate on the likelihood of achieving different view milestones, with outcomes determined by publicly available data.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Morgan Wallen achieves specified global daily YouTube view thresholds at any point between September 7, 2026, and September 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique view count threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location, with results sourced from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold resolves separately based on whether the specified view count is met during the period. Neither the event nor the markets imply any endorsement or affiliation from YouTube; references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as comprehensive public forecasts for Morgan Wallen’s daily view counts are limited. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and real-time sentiment than traditional polls or analyst reports. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the probability of different outcomes, potentially leading to a more nuanced and dynamic prediction than static forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes – in this case, specific ranges of daily view counts. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time indication of the expected highest daily view count for Morgan Wallen during the specified period. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence in each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the highest daily view count achieved by Morgan Wallen across all major video platforms between September 7, 2026, and September 13, 2026. The exact view count data will be sourced from publicly available analytics and verified to ensure accuracy, determining which contract will pay out based on the highest daily view count achieved during that timeframe.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Morgan Wallen’s new music releases, tour dates, or public appearances would likely impact the perceived likelihood of higher view counts. Unexpected viral trends featuring his music or collaborations could also drive increased viewership. Furthermore, broader shifts in social media engagement or changes to video platform algorithms could influence the market. Finally, any controversies or positive media coverage surrounding the artist could also lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market.
