TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 5M
- Kalshi
Above 5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 20, 1:20 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the potential for a popular music artist to achieve exceptionally high daily view counts on a global platform during a specified week. It examines whether viewership milestones are met, reflecting audience engagement and content performance over a short timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of global daily YouTube views for Morgan Wallen between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific view count threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. If the artist's global daily views exceed any of these thresholds at any point during the week, the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' View counts are determined using YouTube Charts with 'Global' selected as the location and accessed via a New York IP address to ensure consistency. All markets are independent, and the outcome of one does not affect the others. It is clarified that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or media predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. While analysts might focus on historical data and announced promotions, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many individuals actively trading on Kalshi. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data regarding potential viewership.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher view count, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches, providing a real-time assessment of potential viewership.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Morgan Wallen between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026, will be determined based on publicly available data from official streaming services and video platforms. The range encompassing that highest daily view count will be the winning outcome in this market, and all contracts associated with that range will settle at 100.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any announcements regarding new music releases, major media appearances, or promotional campaigns featuring Morgan Wallen would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected news events, such as controversies or positive publicity, could also influence market sentiment. Furthermore, changes in the popularity of streaming platforms or viewing habits in general could play a role. Tracking these factors and monitoring volume changes on Kalshi will be crucial for understanding market movements.
