TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Morgan Wallen's YouTube view counts over a specific week, resolving based on whether his daily views surpass various thresholds. Participants can speculate on the likelihood of achieving different view milestones, reflecting audience engagement and content performance.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Morgan Wallen achieves specified global daily YouTube view thresholds during the period from October 19, 2026, to October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' Morgan Wallen must surpass the respective threshold on at least one day within the specified window. View counts are determined using data accessed via YouTube Charts, with 'Global' selected as the location and values displayed from a New York IP address used for consistency. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this type of event. Unlike political or economic predictions, there aren’t widely published, standardized forecasts for daily view counts. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively assessing factors that could influence viewership, such as album releases, media appearances, and social media engagement. Discrepancies between this market and external expectations could highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The price reflects the probability of a particular outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a lower probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. The current top outcome is unavailable, and the implied chance percentage is also unavailable at this time. The market’s price is driven solely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on the highest daily view count achieved by Morgan Wallen’s content across major platforms during the period of October 19, 2026, to October 25, 2026. The verified count will be sourced from publicly available data and will determine which outcome in this market is declared the winner. The resolution will be based on the highest number of views across all platforms.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding Morgan Wallen’s career, such as new album releases, concert tours, or high-profile media appearances, would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected controversies or positive publicity could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, changes in the popularity of the platforms where his content is viewed, or the emergence of competing artists, could influence traders’ assessments. Any news impacting his overall public profile is likely to be reflected in the price of this market.
