TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 14, 8:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Montevideo City will win its professional Uruguay Primera Division soccer game against Liverpool M. Currently, Kalshi gives Montevideo City a 97.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 2.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for Sep 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by Kalshi. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market will resolve to Yes if Montevideo City wins within the 90-minute window plus stoppage time, with final resolution expected around September 15, 2026.
The market resolves based on the result of the Montevideo City vs Liverpool M professional Uruguay Primera Division soccer game scheduled for Sep 14, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Montevideo City wins, the "Montevideo City" market resolves to Yes. If Liverpool M wins, the "Liverpool M" market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the "Tie" market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – and as more people trade, the odds on Kalshi can move independently of sportsbook adjustments. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant event, as the market incorporates a broader range of perspectives than a single sportsbook might.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market clears at the best available prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome happens.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result of the Montevideo City vs Liverpool match will be used to determine the winning contract. Resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final result as this will trigger the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 15, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Montevideo City or Liverpool would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trader sentiment. Even external factors like weather conditions on match day or major news affecting team morale could play a role. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning has the potential to move the market.