TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Montenegro vs. Slovenia
kalshi
polymarket

Montenegro vs. Slovenia

Volume:
$325,256

Slovenia

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Closed: Mar 31, 3:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Slovenia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$110,110
N/A
N/A
$67,262
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Slovenia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$55,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Montenegro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,064
N/A
N/A
$32,919
Settled
No
polymarket

Montenegro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,272
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,272
N/A
N/A
$18,207
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Montenegro vs. Slovenia)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Montenegro and Slovenia.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable: all three outcomes (Tie, Slovenia win, Montenegro win) are specified to resolve to Yes, making it impossible to distinguish between them or settle the market. Polymarket uses standard binary logic with three separate markets that can each resolve independently and consistently.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's markets in this group — they contain a fatal logical error that makes settlement impossible. Polymarket's three binary markets (Draw, Montenegro Win, Slovenia Win) are properly structured and resolvable. Trade only on Polymarket if you want reliable settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: All three outcome markets (Tie, Slovenia win, Montenegro win) are specified to resolve to Yes, creating a logical contradiction where every possible match result triggers Yes on all three markets simultaneously. This violates basic market design and makes the group unresolvable. Key quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Slovenia wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Montenegro wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Aligned with standard binary market logic: Three separate binary markets (Draw Yes/No, Montenegro Win Yes/No, Slovenia Win Yes/No) where exactly one outcome occurs and only the corresponding market resolves Yes while the others resolve No. Key quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If Montenegro wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.