TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 1:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Montana State will win their college football game against Nevada by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 96.0% probability to Montana State winning by over 2.5 points. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Montana St. vs Nevada college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, as reported by Kalshi. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve to Yes if Montana St. wins by more than 16.5 points, with final resolution expected around September 13, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Montana St. vs Nevada college football game scheduled for Sep 12, 2026. If Montana St. wins by exceeding the specified point threshold in any market labeled 'Montana St. wins by over X points,' that market resolves to Yes; if Nevada wins by exceeding its respective threshold in markets labeled 'Nevada wins by over X points,' those resolve to Yes. All markets share identical secondary rules: if the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, markets remain open and resolve per the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment regardless of game timing uncertainties.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of both markets. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially as game day approaches, as traders react quickly to news and analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Montana State vs Nevada spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast of the game's outcome. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions as they profit from correctly anticipating the final spread.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the actual spread will be worth 100, while those predicting a different spread will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries on either the Montana State or Nevada teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also shift the market. Late-breaking analysis from sports analysts and public betting trends can also impact trader sentiment and therefore the price. Any significant information that alters perceptions of each team’s chances of winning by a certain margin has the potential to move this market.