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417,059
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This event tracks the performance of a classic novelty song on a major music chart, determining if it achieves various levels of popularity by a specific date. It reflects how public interest and nostalgia can influence chart positions for well-known tracks.
The event evaluates the chart position of "Monster Mash" by Bobby "Boris" Pickett & The Crypt Kickers on the Billboard Hot 100 for the chart dated November 7, 2026. Markets resolve to Yes if the song ranks within specified ranges from No. 1 to No. 100. Each market corresponds to a distinct ranking range, allowing participants to speculate on the exact level of the song’s success. All markets share the same secondary rule, clarifying that Kalshi has no official affiliation with Billboard, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. The structure enables granular betting on the song’s chart performance, accommodating various expectations of its popularity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price and probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own assessments of the song’s potential, leading to dynamic price fluctuations throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final Billboard Hot 100 chart ranking for “Monster Mash” as published on November 7, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official chart published by Billboard, a widely recognized and trusted source for music industry data. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts after the resolution process is complete.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 7, 2026. A major resurgence in popularity of Halloween-themed music, perhaps driven by a viral social media trend, could boost the song’s chart position. Unexpected radio play or inclusion in a popular movie or television show could also drive increased streams and sales. Conversely, negative publicity or a shift in consumer tastes could dampen enthusiasm for the song. Any significant news or events related to the artist or the song itself will likely influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.