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MLB: Stolen Bases Leader
kalshi
polymarket

Who will lead MLB in stolen bases?

Volume:
$864,603

Nasim Nuñez

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 8:51 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nasim Nuñez

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,936
N/A
N/A
$23,988
2w 1d 20h
Yes
polymarket

Nasim Nuñez

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
Yes
polymarket

Nico Hoerner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$640,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nico Hoerner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,230
N/A
N/A
$968
2w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

Chandler Simpson

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,340
N/A
N/A
$12,968
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Chandler Simpson

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
No
kalshi

Bobby Witt Jr.

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,307
N/A
N/A
$8,738
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Bobby Witt Jr.

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
No
kalshi

José Ramírez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,705
N/A
N/A
$4,790
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

José Ramírez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,858
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,166
N/A
N/A
$8,290
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
No
kalshi

Ronald Acuña Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,832
N/A
N/A
$6,040
2w 1d 20h
No
kalshi

José Caballero

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,005
N/A
N/A
$3,178
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

José Caballero

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,504
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Oneil Cruz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,396
N/A
N/A
$3,572
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Oneil Cruz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,763
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
No
kalshi

Pete Crow-Armstrong

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,266
N/A
N/A
$3,715
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Pete Crow-Armstrong

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
No
kalshi

Jakob Marsee

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,476
N/A
N/A
$3,476
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Jakob Marsee

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Elly De La Cruz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,437
N/A
N/A
$2,132
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Elly De La Cruz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Luisangel Acuña

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,218
N/A
N/A
$3,211
2w 1d 20h
No
polymarket

Luisangel Acuña

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 10h
No
Total markets: 25 of 131

Intro

This market tracks whether Nasim Nuñez will lead Major League Baseball in stolen bases during the 2026 regular season. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket gives Nuñez a 99.8% chance of achieving this. This prediction group forecasts which player will steal the most bases, and resolves to Yes if Zach Neto leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on team rosters and player development as the 2026 season approaches, with final resolution expected around October 16, 2026, at the conclusion of the regular season.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides detailed tie-breaking rules and cancellation policy, while Kalshi lacks these specifics.Hero tip: Favor Polymarket markets for better defined resolution criteria, particularly for players expected to contend for the lead.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the player with the most stolen bases, with a multi-stage tie-breaking procedure: fewest caught stealing, on-base percentage, total bases, then alphabetical order. Resolves to 'Other' if the season is cancelled. "This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season."
  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if a specific player leads the MLB in stolen bases. No tie-breaking rules or cancellation policy are provided. "If [Player Name] leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records fewer caught stealings during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more total bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Elly De La Cruz leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chandler Simpson leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Corbin Carroll leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bobby Witt Jr. leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jakob Marsee leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Crow-Armstrong leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If José Caballero leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If CJ Abrams leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If José Ramírez leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nasim Nuñez leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Victor Scott II leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Oneil Cruz leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Crawford leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luis Robert Jr. leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jazz Chisholm Jr. leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ronald Acuña Jr. leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Xavier Edwards leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brice Turang leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Zach Neto leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Trea Turner leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Maikel Garcia leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jake Mangum leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nico Hoerner leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fernando Tatis Jr. leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Byron Buxton leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dylan Crews leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jarren Duran leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jackson Merrill leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shohei Ohtani leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Julio Rodriguez leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sal Frelick leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jackson Chourio leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gunnar Henderson leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Francisco Lindor leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Trevor Story leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luisangel Acuña leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Geraldo Perdomo leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ceddanne Rafaela leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Randy Arozarena leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bryson Stott leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Caleb Durbin leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luke Keaschall leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lawrence Butler leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthony Volpe leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wyatt Langford leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hyeseong Kim leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeremy Peña leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Juan Soto leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If JJ Wetherholt leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Harris II leads Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each platform can also contribute to price discrepancies. For example, one platform might attract more sophisticated baseball analysts, leading to a more informed price, while the other may be influenced by broader market sentiment. These differences create opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from price variations across venues.

Numerous factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Injuries to key players known for their speed and base-stealing ability would be a major catalyst. Rule changes affecting stolen base attempts, or changes in team strategy regarding aggressive base running, could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected breakout performances from lesser-known players could also move the market, as could mid-season trades that bring in new talent. Monitoring player health, team performance, and any changes to MLB rules will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.