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2,388,728,490

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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MLB: Next Red Sox Manager
kalshi
polymarket

Who will be the next Red Sox manager?

Volume:
$728,317

Chad Tracy

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 11:50 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chad Tracy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$44,134
N/A
N/A
$16,094
2mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

Chad Tracy

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
Yes
polymarket

Brad Ausmus

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$414,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Brad Ausmus

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,368
N/A
N/A
$802
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

A.J. Ellis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192,761
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Jason Varitek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,317
N/A
N/A
$7,731
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Jason Varitek

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$781
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Rocco Baldelli

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,080
N/A
N/A
$4,735
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Rocco Baldelli

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

David Ross

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,990
N/A
N/A
$3,934
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

David Ross

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Andrew Bailey

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,337
N/A
N/A
$3,892
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Andrew Bailey

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,471
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Kevin Youkilis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,209
N/A
N/A
$2,405
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Dustin Pedroia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,115
N/A
N/A
$2,815
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Dustin Pedroia

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Mike Lowell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,591
N/A
N/A
$1,469
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Torey Lovullo

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,418
N/A
N/A
$949
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Omar López

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,005
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
polymarket

Nomar Garciaparra

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$943
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Nomar Garciaparra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$553
N/A
N/A
$451
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Daniel Descalso

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$907
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Alex Rodriguez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$801
N/A
N/A
$799
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Alex Rodriguez

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$699
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 4d
No
kalshi

Daniel Nava

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$799
2mo 2d
No
Total markets: 25 of 58

Intro

This market tracks the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox, considering a wide range of potential candidates. Currently, the consensus probability favors Will Chad Tracy being appointed, at 98.2%. David Ross is currently considered the second most likely candidate with a 1.6% probability. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official information from the Boston Red Sox. Keep an eye on February 1, 2027, as that is the date by which a permanent manager must be appointed to avoid resolution to “Other” according to the resolution rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes an 'Other' option and a much broader candidate list than Kalshi, increasing the risk of a resolution outside the explicitly listed options on Kalshi.Hero tip: Consider Polymarket if you believe an unlisted candidate is likely. Focus on Kalshi if you are confident the next manager is among the listed options.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Other' if no permanent manager is appointed by January 31, 2027. Includes a very extensive list of potential candidates and an 'Other' option, allowing for any possible outcome. "This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' only if one of the specifically listed candidates is appointed. Does not have an 'Other' option. "If the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox is [Candidate Name], then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox. If no permanent manager is appointed by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Boston Red Sox; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

The Boston Red Sox's next permanent manager will be determined from a slate of candidates including David Ortiz, Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Brad Ausmus, Brandon Hyde, Jason Varitek, Jeff Banister, Rocco Baldelli, Daniel Nava, Ron Gardenhire, Sandy Alomar Jr., Chad Tracy, David Ross, Andrew Bailey, Mike Lowell, and Torey Lovullo. Each candidate market resolves to Yes if that individual is hired as the next permanent manager. If no permanent manager is selected before December 1, 2026, all markets resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the the Red Sox manager market by aggregating trading volume and implied probabilities across both platforms. Currently, the combined volume for this market is $728,317, with $26,266 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of who is most likely to be appointed as the next manager, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants. The dashboard visualizes the probabilities for each potential candidate, allowing users to quickly assess the leading contenders and how the market is evolving. This is a unique view of public prediction, combining data from multiple sources.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official news regarding potential candidates, such as interviews or reported offers, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected developments with current frontrunners, like a withdrawal from consideration, could also shift probabilities. Public statements from team ownership or key personnel about their managerial preferences could also influence trading activity. Major league baseball events, such as the end of the season and subsequent managerial openings elsewhere, could also create ripple effects. Volume of $728,317 suggests strong interest, meaning even small pieces of news can have an outsized effect on this market.