TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,661,467,257

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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MLB: 2026 NL MVP
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win MLB NL MVP?

Total volume:
$5,912,711
Volume 24h:
$16,687
96%
Liquidity:
$65,189
7%
Open interest:
$2,438,915
0.32%

Player D

 - Polymarket

Player D - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Player D win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.3¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 0.7% | APY: 3% 76 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Player D

Trade
99%
Yes 99.3¢No 2.2¢
1.5¢
$1,948
$675,509
0%
0.03%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$1,479,498
0.75%
2%
$554,940
2mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Shohei Ohtani

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.3¢
1.3¢
$3,130
$130,955
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Shohei Ohtani

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$1,357,397
0.09%
1%
$452,092
2mo 2w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Matt Olson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$202,993
0%
0.02%
$144,502
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Tie/Co-Winners

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$177,086
0.28%
0.36%
$118,244
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

James Wood

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$156,799
0%
0.03%
$131,448
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$120,454
0%
0.04%
$111,587
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Brice Turang

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$100,842
1%
2%
$96,579
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Jordan Walker

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$86,054
0%
0.06%
$84,863
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Paul Skenes

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$57,996
0%
0.08%
$56,821
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Michael Harris II

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$47,587
0%
0.1%
$47,587
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Jackson Chourio

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$42,779
6%
8%
$40,312
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Oneil Cruz

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$26,081
0%
0%
$24,784
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Luis Robert Jr.

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$19,333
0%
0.25%
$19,333
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Alex Bregman

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$14,320
2%
4%
$14,320
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Geraldo Perdomo

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$12,562
0%
0.38%
$12,562
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Drake Baldwin

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$10,273
0%
0.47%
$10,272
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Jackson Merrill

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$9,620
0%
0.5%
$9,620
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Bo Bichette

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$8,086
0%
0.6%
$8,086
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Christian Yelich

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,553
0%
20%
$7,553
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Max Muncy

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,514
0%
0%
$7,514
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Michael Busch

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,386
0%
0%
$7,386
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Freddie Freeman

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,175
0%
8%
$7,175
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Ketel Marte

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,105
0%
0%
$5,508
2mo 2w 1d
active
Total markets: 25 of 71

Intro

This market tracks which player will win the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, as determined by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). Currently, the consensus probability that Player D will win the award is 98.6%. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether Shohei Ohtani wins the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season. Keep an eye on the official BBWAA MVP announcement, expected around November 2026, as that will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists a comprehensive set of players, while Polymarket has a limited set of named players plus an 'Other' option, creating SKU risk.Hero tip: Kalshi offers broader coverage, capturing potential dark horse candidates not explicitly listed on Polymarket. Consider the probability assigned to 'Other' on Polymarket as an indicator of unlisted player potential.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to a specific list of named players or 'Other'. "This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award."
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if any listed player wins the NL MVP. "If [Player Name] wins the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified players wins the National League MVP award in the 2026 season. Eligible candidates include Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Lindor, Corbin Carroll, Elly De La Cruz, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mookie Betts, Geraldo Perdomo, Trea Turner, Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, Alex Bregman, Freddie Freeman, Bo Bichette, Matt Olson, Will Smith, James Wood, Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, Masyn Winn, Michael Harris II, Brice Turang, Oneil Cruz, Ozzie Albies, Hunter Goodman, Michael Busch, Willy Adames, Ian Happ, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Matt Chapman, Nolan Arenado, Marcus Semien, Christian Yelich, Luis Robert Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Nick Castellanos, Dansby Swanson, Caleb Durbin, Kyle Tucker, Sal Frelick, Mickey Moniak, Drake Baldwin, Nico Hoerner, and Jordan Walker. The market also resolves to Yes if the award results in a tie or co-winners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate sentiment around the 2026 NL MVP, combining trading volume and implied probabilities from multiple sources. Currently, the total volume across these platforms exceeds $5,912,711, with $16,272 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of who is most likely to win, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants. Polymarket currently favors Will Player D win the 2026 National League MVP Award? at 98.6%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win NL MVP? at 98.0%. This allows for a comprehensive overview of the 2026 NL MVP market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, while sportsbooks may incorporate a profit margin or be influenced by public biases. The difference, or 0.6, can vary, but prediction markets tend to be more efficient at aggregating information. Sportsbooks also often adjust odds less frequently than traders update prices in this market, especially as new information emerges. Both offer valuable insights, but this market provides a unique perspective based on real money at risk.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume can also be unevenly distributed between the two, causing price discrepancies. Additionally, the specific rules and fee structures on each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, prices. While both platforms track the same underlying event, these nuances can create temporary differences in the perceived probabilities within this market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The National League MVP award will be announced following the conclusion of the 2026 MLB season, and the winner as determined by the Baseball Writers' Association of America will be the basis for settlement. Trading will cease prior to the official announcement, allowing for a final price to be established reflecting the market’s final assessment of the likely winner. The outcome will be determined by the official results of the award.

Numerous factors could significantly impact this market. Player performance, of course, is paramount – strong or weak seasons from potential candidates will drive price movements. Injuries to key players, trades between teams, and even managerial changes can all influence perceptions of a player’s MVP chances. News regarding rule changes or shifts in team strategy could also play a role. As the 2026 season progresses, statistical milestones, media narratives, and public sentiment will all contribute to the dynamic pricing within this market, making it a continuously evolving reflection of the NL MVP race.