TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,661,467,257

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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MLB: 2026 AL MVP
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win MLB AL MVP?

Total volume:
$6,385,531
Volume 24h:
$747,174
16%
Liquidity:
$36,030
46%
Open interest:
$3,671,434
0.02%

Yordan Álvarez

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 16% 75 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yordan Álvarez

Trade
97%
2%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$564,780
0.14%
2%
$375,766
2mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Yordan Alvarez

Trade
95%
2%
Yes 94.9¢No 5.4¢
0.3¢
$1,357
$54,419
0.89%
6%
N/A
3w 6d 2h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96.8%
Yes 96¢No 4.7¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Cam Schlittler

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$373,449
0.44%
1%
$282,176
2mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Player D

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 2.9¢No 98.7¢
1.6¢
$1,582
$5,847
0%
3%
N/A
3w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

Player I

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.3¢
1.8¢
$1,224
$1,794
0%
0%
N/A
3w 6d 2h
active
kalshi

Junior Caminero

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$744,109
0%
3%
$356,938
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Ben Rice

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$492,382
0.01%
0.06%
$305,513
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Nick Kurtz

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$372,068
0%
0%
$331,887
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Dillon Dingler

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$227,570
0%
0%
$118,558
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Byron Buxton

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$132,132
0%
0%
$81,766
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Cody Bellinger

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$129,417
0%
0%
$107,544
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Roman Anthony

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$128,458
0%
0%
$102,388
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Miguel Vargas

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$73,638
0%
0%
$73,638
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Pete Alonso

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$67,987
0%
0.07%
$66,987
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Adley Rutschman

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$58,609
0%
0.25%
$58,609
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Wyatt Langford

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$52,964
0%
0%
$40,835
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Shea Langeliers

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$43,677
0%
0%
$27,426
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Tarik Skubal

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$43,466
0%
0%
$43,382
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Maikel García

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$41,358
0%
0%
$41,358
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$40,154
0%
0%
$40,154
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Jarren Duran

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$26,044
0%
0%
$26,044
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Yandy Diaz

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$25,443
0%
0%
$25,443
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Colson Montgomery

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$16,522
0%
0%
$16,522
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Munetaka Murakami

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$15,062
0%
0%
$15,062
2mo 2w 1d
active
kalshi

Zach Neto

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$10,604
0%
0%
$10,604
2mo 2w 1d
active
Total markets: 25 of 69

Intro

This market tracks the probability of various players winning the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player award in Major League Baseball. Currently, the consensus probability of Yordan Álvarez winning the award is 94.0%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Junior Caminero is currently at 3.0%. The market will resolve based on the official winner of the 2026 Pro Baseball American League MVP award, as determined by the league, with tiebreakers resolved alphabetically by last name. Keep an eye on the announcement of award finalists in November 2026, as this will likely signal the final stages of market settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' if *any* listed player wins, creating a bundled outcome, while Polymarket focuses on individual player wins.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi's market is effectively a bet on whether one of a specific set of players wins, not a direct bet on a single player. Polymarket offers more precise bets on individual players.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the single winner of the 2026 AL MVP award. In the event of a tie, the player whose last name comes first alphabetically wins. The season must occur for the market to resolve. "If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if *any* of the listed players win the award, or if there is a tie. This effectively creates a combined outcome for all listed players. "If Tie/Co-Winners wins the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified players wins the Pro Baseball American League MVP award in the 2026 season. The award recognizes the most valuable player in the AL as determined by voting, considering overall performance, statistics, and contribution to team success. A tie or co-winners outcome is also included as a possible resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregated probabilities for various players to win the 2026 AL MVP award. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $6,385,531, with $2,906 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the outcome of the 2026 AL MVP. The dashboard provides a consensus view derived from the prices established by traders on these two platforms, offering a comprehensive look at the evolving probabilities for each potential winner. Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP? currently leads the market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on models and internal analysis, while prediction markets are driven by real money at risk. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially closer to the event date. However, the spread between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds can vary, sometimes by as much as 2.3 depending on market sentiment and information availability. This market provides a unique way to compare and contrast these different approaches to forecasting.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to differing opinions on the probabilities of each outcome. Trading volume can also play a role; higher volume on one platform may indicate stronger conviction in a particular outcome. Furthermore, the platforms may have slightly different fee structures or liquidity provisions, influencing trader behavior. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? at 94.8%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP? at 97.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner will be the player officially awarded the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player award by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). The resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the BBWAA, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results and confirmation of the winner of this market.

Numerous factors could influence the probabilities within this market over the next few years. Player performance, injuries, and trades are all significant catalysts. A breakout season from a currently undervalued player could dramatically shift the odds in their favor. Conversely, a major injury to a frontrunner would likely decrease their chances. Rule changes or shifts in team strategies could also impact player valuations and, consequently, the market. Any news regarding player contracts, coaching changes, or team acquisitions could also move this market, as traders react to new information and reassess the likelihood of each player winning the award.