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5

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MLB: 2026 AL East Champion
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win MLB AL East?

Volume:
$1,918,554

Tampa Bay

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 10:30 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tampa Bay

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$416,785
N/A
N/A
$211,006
1mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$68,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

New York Y

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$628,921
N/A
N/A
$243,004
1mo 2d
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
No
kalshi

Boston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$438,078
N/A
N/A
$211,870
1mo 2d
No
kalshi

Baltimore

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$90,778
N/A
N/A
$64,834
1mo 2d
No
kalshi

Toronto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,229
N/A
N/A
$43,697
1mo 2d
No
polymarket

Baltimore Orioles

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 3h
No
polymarket

Toronto Blue Jays

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,921
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 3h
No
polymarket

Boston Red Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 3h
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 3h
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks which team will win the American League East division in Major League Baseball for the 2026 season, considering the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays. Currently, the consensus probability of the Tampa Bay Rays winning the AL East is 99.0%, with the New York Yankees trailing at 1.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/). Keep an eye on the final regular season standings as determined by MLB, with resolution expected around November 1, 2026, to see which team claims the division title.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms rely on MLB's official determination of the AL East division winner, with a tiebreaker and cancellation clause.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for the team that wins the 2026 AL East division.
  • MLB's official standings and tie-breaking procedures will be used to determine the winner.
  • If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled or postponed past October 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: If two or more teams tie for first place, MLB's official tie-breaking rules will determine the division winner, and the market will resolve accordingly.
  • Season Cancellation: If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled or significantly altered (postponed past October 31, 2026), the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Timing: The market will resolve upon the official conclusion of the 2026 MLB regular season and the declaration of the AL East division winner by MLB.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB American League East division. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named the 2026 American League East division champion per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The 2026 AL East Division Winner is determined by regular season performance. Any of the five teams in the division—New York Yankees, Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto, or Baltimore—may win the division title by achieving the best win-loss record during the regular season. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team finishes atop the division standings.

Frequently asked questions

Numerous factors could significantly impact this market. Key player injuries, major trades, and team performance during the season are all potential catalysts. Unexpected developments in team ownership or management could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, any news regarding rule changes or potential labor disputes within Major League Baseball could influence trading activity. A strong or weak showing in spring training, early-season upsets, and even weather patterns affecting game schedules could all contribute to movement in this market.