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Closed: Sep 26, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will score more points in the final quarter of a college football matchup between Missouri and Mississippi State. It focuses solely on the performance during the last 15 minutes of regulation time, ignoring the overall game result or any overtime periods. The outcome depends purely on who holds the scoring advantage in that specific segment of play.
The market resolves based on which team scores more points during the fourth quarter of regulation play in the Missouri vs Mississippi State college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. If Mississippi State scores more points in the fourth quarter, the 'Mississippi St. wins 4th Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If Missouri scores more points in the fourth quarter, the 'Missouri wins 4th Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If both teams score the same number of points in the fourth quarter, the 'Tie 4th Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official fourth-quarter result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Points scored in overtime do not count toward any market resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than a sportsbook suggests, the odds here will adjust accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and place orders, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The closer we get to the end date, the more volatile the prices may become as traders react to new information and refine their predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the 4th quarter of the Missouri vs Mississippi State game will determine the winning contract. The result will be based on the official game statistics and final score, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategy, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance during the game itself, such as a key player scoring early or a significant turnover, would likely cause rapid price adjustments. Public opinion, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, especially as the game approaches and more attention is focused on the Missouri vs Mississippi State contest.