TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 9:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Separate markets will determine if Missouri or Kansas wins the first half by specific point margins, with varying thresholds for each team.
Markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half, with Missouri required to win by more than the specified margin for Missouri-related outcomes, and Kansas required to win by more than the specified margin for Kansas-related outcomes. Only points from the first half count. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours, markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it’s important to note that these markets represent different things – one is a forecast, the other is a wager.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the Missouri-Kansas football spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a belief that the spread will be a certain way, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game approaches.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Missouri-Kansas football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. The platform will verify the final score and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Missouri or Kansas teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from informed traders, could also shift the market price.