TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the point differential in the first half of a college football game between Missouri State and SMU. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, determining whether the outcome meets or exceeds that margin in the first half alone.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Missouri St. vs SMU college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. If SMU achieves a first-half win by exceeding the specified point margin—from 2.5 to 34.5 points—the corresponding "Yes" outcome triggers. Conversely, if Missouri St. secures a first-half victory by surpassing its designated margins (2.5 to 10.5 points), the respective "Yes" outcome applies. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original schedule, all markets remain active and resolve per the actual first-half result. If play does not begin within this 48-hour window, all markets settle at a fair price, reflecting the inability to determine a definitive outcome under the stated conditions.
Prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the continuous flow of information and diverse perspectives of traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market evolves as participants react to news, injuries, and other factors influencing the game. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information becomes available, and sometimes prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional odds, especially closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts. Contracts are priced between 0 and 100, representing the probability of a 'yes' outcome (the spread being over the listed value). As more people buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective belief of traders regarding the likelihood of that outcome, and is updated in real-time with each trade. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay to own a contract that pays out if the spread is over the listed value.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final 1st half spread of the Missouri St vs SMU game will be used to determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' contracts payout. A 'yes' outcome means the actual spread was greater than the listed value, while a 'no' outcome means it was less than or equal to the listed value. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and data sources, ensuring an accurate and transparent outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Missouri St or SMU teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy revealed during practice could also move the market. Finally, large-volume trades from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment, causing the price to adjust rapidly.