TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 9:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Mississippi State or South Carolina specifically in the second half of their college football matchup. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during the second half (including overtime) for the market to resolve positively.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the designated college football game between Mississippi State and South Carolina. For markets where South Carolina is the designated winner, resolution occurs if South Carolina's second-half point differential exceeds the specified threshold. Conversely, for markets where Mississippi State is the designated winner, resolution occurs if Mississippi State's second-half point differential exceeds the specified threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and each has its own strengths and weaknesses. It's common to see convergence as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being correct at the end of the second half. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are not. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism driven by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the Mississippi State-South Carolina game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing sports organization. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The exact timing of resolution may vary slightly depending on the availability of official results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Mississippi State or South Carolina teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they affect the style of play, could also move the market. In-game performance during the first half, such as a dominant showing by one team, could shift expectations and alter the spread. Public sentiment and large bets placed by informed traders can also contribute to price movements.