TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 13, 8:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for an upcoming soccer match between Mirassol and LDU Quito in the CONMEBOL Libertadores tournament. The focus is on determining whether the winning team achieves a decisive victory by exceeding specific goal differences. Results are evaluated after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple outcome scenarios for the Mirassol vs LDU Quito CONMEBOL Libertadores match scheduled for August 13, 2026, with resolution based solely on regular time results (90 minutes plus stoppage time). Four distinct primary rules define potential resolutions: Mirassol winning by more than 2.5 goals, Mirassol winning by more than 1.5 goals, LDU Quito winning by more than 1.5 goals, or LDU Quito winning by more than 2.5 goals. All markets resolve based on the actual goal differential at the end of regular time, with no consideration given to extra time, penalty phases, or other post-regulation match events. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the speculative nature of trader-driven pricing. While sportsbooks set their lines based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets reflect aggregated trader sentiment and can shift more rapidly with new information. This can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on trader confidence, making this market an alternative way to gauge expectations versus established sportsbook odds.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds through continuous bidding and asking, reflecting their collective expectations for the match outcome. The current implied probability is derived from the spread price, which adjusts dynamically based on new information, trading volume of $43,380, and shifts in market sentiment leading up to Aug 14, 2026.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official match statistics and confirmed once all sources agree, ensuring a clear and transparent resolution for all participants. Traders will see the market settle based on the final spread outcome as reported by authoritative sports databases and news outlets.
Injuries to key players, changes in team strategies, or significant performance shifts in prior matches could move this market. Weather conditions, referee announcements, and even early match events like goals or red cards often cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment. As the match nears, any news affecting team strength or form will likely influence how traders price the likelihood of a higher or lower spread outcome.