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Closed: Sep 27, 4:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Myles Price will score 3 or more touchdowns in the Minnesota vs Tampa Bay professional football game. Currently, the probability of Myles Price scoring 3+ touchdowns is 7.0%, while the probability of Josh Oliver scoring 1+ touchdowns is 1.0%. The market will resolve based on whether Josh Oliver scores at least one touchdown in the game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026, according to official game statistics. Keep an eye on Josh Oliver’s performance leading up to and including the game on September 27, 2026, as his touchdown count will determine the outcome.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player scores the required number of touchdowns during the game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by a penalty — the market settles according to the actual number of touchdowns scored. All markets are independent, and resolution depends solely on the player's touchdown performance, with no additional conditions beyond snap participation affecting the outcome.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Analyzing these differences can reveal insights into where the public and professional bettors diverge in their assessments of the game's likely outcome, and how that impacts the number of touchdowns expected.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of the corresponding contract will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game approaches, providing a real-time assessment of potential touchdown totals.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total number of touchdowns scored in the Minnesota versus Tampa Bay game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the final touchdown count.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Minnesota Vikings or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for passing, could also impact expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could shift trader sentiment. Even public perception, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.