TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing completions achieved by specific quarterbacks in a professional football game between Minnesota and Tampa Bay. The outcome depends on whether predetermined completion thresholds are met by the named players during the contest.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the specified quarterback in the Minnesota vs Tampa Bay game scheduled for September 27, 2026. If the named quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap — even if that play is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold for resolution (e.g., 16+, 21+, or 26+ completions), and meeting or exceeding that threshold results in a 'Yes' settlement. These rules apply independently to each named player, with separate thresholds for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the views of many traders. Over time, the prices in this market tend to become more efficient as more information becomes available and more people participate. It’s common to see convergence between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds as the event approaches, though discrepancies can still occur due to differing market participants and risk appetites.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price indicates a lower probability, while a lower price suggests a higher probability. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key quarterbacks or receivers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or rain, could affect passing strategies and completion rates. Unexpected news regarding team tactics or play-calling tendencies could also move the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or betting patterns could influence the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi, causing the price to adjust accordingly.