TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many times specific quarterbacks attempt to pass the ball during a single football game between Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Each market focuses on a different player and a different threshold of pass attempts, allowing participants to speculate on how aggressively each quarterback will throw the ball.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing attempts recorded by the specified quarterback in the Minnesota vs Tampa Bay Pro Football game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. If the named quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap—whether due to injury, substitution, or any other reason—the market settles at its fair market price as determined immediately before the game begins. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap, regardless of whether that snap is nullified by a penalty or otherwise invalidated, the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded during that game. All markets are independent and evaluated separately, each with its own threshold for resolution (e.g., 27+, 32+, etc.). Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probability of an event. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders to buy or sell at specific prices, or market orders to execute trades immediately at the best available price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing attempts recorded by the official league statistics will determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the final passing attempts will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final results to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding quarterback injuries to key players on either team, such as Baker Mayfield or the opposing quarterback, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions favoring a run-heavy or pass-heavy offense, could also shift the market. Game-day decisions regarding offensive play-calling strategies, or even in-game performance affecting the game script, could all contribute to fluctuations in the price of contracts within this market.