TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming American football game, focusing on whether specified participants achieve certain fantasy point thresholds as calculated by a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense units during the full duration of the Minnesota vs Tampa Bay Pro Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026, including any overtime periods. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories such as passing/rushing/receiving yards, touchdowns, interceptions, field goals, sacks, defensive plays, and special teams contributions. Each market has a specific threshold; if the designated player or defense unit exceeds their respective threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise to 'No.' Players who do not participate or receive no fantasy-point value are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no adjustments for post-expiration corrections or rounding. All markets are independent, and each resolves solely based on the performance of its designated participant.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and need to account for profit margins. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading contracts based on their own analysis and beliefs, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, and these differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the corresponding outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price discovery, with larger volumes generally indicating greater confidence in the predicted outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy points total for both the Minnesota and Tampa Bay teams will be sourced from official sports statistics providers. The market will then settle based on whether the total fantasy points fall above or below a predetermined threshold, as defined by the contract specifications on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts on the correct side will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to starting lineups for either the Minnesota or Tampa Bay teams would likely cause significant movement. Unexpected weather conditions impacting the game, or late-breaking reports on team strategies, could also shift predictions. Furthermore, general shifts in public sentiment, reflected in sports news and analysis, can drive trading volume and price adjustments in this market as traders react to new information.