TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which Tampa Bay player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Minnesota. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the defense, with outcomes determined by who crosses the goal line first for Tampa Bay.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Tampa Bay player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair pre-game price. Once a snap is taken, resolution depends solely on whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no Tampa Bay touchdowns occur, all player-specific markets resolve as No, and the No Touchdown market resolves as Yes. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of which player or unit is chosen.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than a sportsbook suggests, the price for that outcome will fall, making it more attractive to bet on. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the game between Minnesota and Tampa Bay, as recorded by official game statistics. The official game log will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning outcome. Any scoring plays subject to review will be resolved based on the final ruling from the league officials. This market will close prior to the game's completion.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in the team's offensive strategy, or even weather conditions could shift traders’ expectations. A key player being ruled out would likely significantly impact the odds for their potential to score. Additionally, pre-game analysis from sports analysts and any late-breaking news could also cause fluctuations. The market will be particularly sensitive in the hours leading up to kickoff as new information becomes available and traders refine their predictions.