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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,065
Markets across
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Jul 3, 9:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team leads after the first 5 innings of the Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees game scheduled for July 3, 2026. The outcome is determined by comparing the score at the end of the 5th inning, with a tie also being a possible result.
The market resolves based on the score at the end of the first 5 innings of the game. Minnesota wins if it has more runs than New York Y after 5 innings; New York Y wins if it has more runs than Minnesota after 5 innings; and Tie resolves to Yes if both teams have equal runs after 5 innings, with all team outcomes resolving to No in that case. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.
Prediction market odds on this market reflect real-time trader consensus and often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they incorporate live market activity and participant conviction. While sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability, prediction markets like this one are driven by supply and demand from individual traders. Over time, prediction market pricing tends to converge toward actual outcomes, making them a useful benchmark for comparing against published sportsbook odds and identifying where sharp traders see value in the first five innings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers post bids and offers that determine the real-time contract value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can enter limit or market orders to take positions on the outcome, and the midpoint between the best bid and ask reflects the current consensus price. As new information emerges and more participants trade, the price adjusts dynamically to reflect shifting expectations about the first five innings result.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the first five innings of the Minnesota versus New York game are complete and the outcome is verifiable from credible public sources. The result will be confirmed based on the official box score and game records from Major League Baseball. Traders should monitor the game schedule and any potential delays or postponements that could affect the resolution timeline.
Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, recent team performance and injury updates, weather conditions at game time, and early inning momentum once play begins. Lineup changes, bullpen availability, and historical head-to-head trends in the first five innings can also shift trader positioning. Real-time game action—such as early runs, pitching changes, or defensive plays—will drive price movement as participants update their expectations based on what unfolds on the field.