TOTAL VOLUME:
$143b
24H VOL:
$111,424,783
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,661,467,257
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,630,632,565
494,234
Markets across
37,330
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,871
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Miami wins by over 19.5 points
- Kalshi
Miami wins by over 19.5 points - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 22, 2026
Time left: 05d:04h:48m
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This event tracks various point-spread outcomes for an upcoming professional basketball game, allowing participants to speculate on the magnitude of either team's victory margin. The contest hinges on precise point differentials, offering a range of thresholds for potential payouts based on the final score.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the Minnesota vs Miami Pro Basketball game scheduled for Oct 21, 2026. Each market has a specific point-spread threshold: if Miami wins by exceeding the stated margin, the corresponding 'Miami wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Minnesota wins by exceeding its respective margin, the relevant 'Minnesota wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; otherwise, all markets resolve to No. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve per the final result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they can diverge based on differing information or biases. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, factoring in a 'vig' or commission, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that traders possess information not yet fully incorporated into the sportsbook lines, or that public sentiment is driving the prediction market in a different direction than professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and the actions of other traders, creating a dynamic and real-time representation of the likely outcome of the Minnesota vs Miami game.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Minnesota vs Miami game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the sport. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The final result will determine which contracts are winners and losers in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Minnesota or Miami teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as significant betting activity in sportsbooks, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Public perception and overall betting trends will also play a role.