TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:28 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will meet certain benchmarks for their passing accuracy during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing completions achieved by the named quarterback during the specified game. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold for resolution (e.g., 15+, 20+, or 25+ completions), and meeting or exceeding the specified threshold results in a 'Yes' settlement. These rules apply independently to markets for both participating quarterbacks, Caleb Williams and Carson Wentz, allowing for separate evaluation of each player's performance against their respective thresholds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the perceived probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions for each team will be sourced from official NFL game statistics. The market will settle to the outcome that corresponds to the actual number of passing completions achieved during the game. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as injuries or illness, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could affect passing strategies and completion rates. Unexpected lineup changes or adjustments to offensive schemes could also shift market sentiment. Finally, late-breaking news about team morale or coaching decisions could also play a role in how this market behaves leading up to the game’s conclusion.