TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified athletes achieve certain fantasy point thresholds. Each market centers on a particular participant, with outcomes determined by their statistical contributions as measured by a standardized fantasy scoring system.
All markets resolve based on Sleeper’s default full-PPR fantasy scoring system applied to the full game (including overtime) between Minnesota and Chicago scheduled for September 20, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified player or team unit records above the stated fantasy point threshold for that market. Players or units that do not participate, or who lack a published fantasy-point value from Sleeper, are automatically considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Scoring includes passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, defensive, and special teams contributions as defined by Sleeper’s full-PPR structure, where defensive units earn points based on performance categories such as touchdowns, sacks, turnovers, and points allowed.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the likelihood of a particular outcome, the price here will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see this market converge toward what many consider the 'true' probability as the event approaches, potentially offering different value than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at 60 means it costs 60 dollars to buy a contract that pays out 100 dollars if the outcome occurs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure drives the price up, while increased selling pressure drives it down. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for the total fantasy points scored.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for players in the Minnesota vs Chicago game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official fantasy point totals from a major fantasy sports provider will serve as the basis for settlement. Traders will be able to see the final results and payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and verification of the official statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Minnesota or Chicago teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts, or even late-breaking news about team strategies could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, could also contribute to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before it resolves.