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Closed: Sep 20, 2:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Minnesota and Chicago must both achieve scoring in every quarter of their regular game time. The outcome depends solely on in-game performance during the scheduled four quarters, disregarding any overtime activity.
If Minnesota and Chicago both score points in every quarter of regulation of the Minnesota vs Chicago Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market represents a collective forecast from individuals trading on Kalshi. If many traders believe a certain outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, they will bid up the price of that outcome, causing the prediction market odds to diverge. It’s common to see differences, particularly as new information becomes available and market participants update their beliefs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of the event occurring. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a percentage chance of the outcome being true. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants trading on the exchange, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of both teams scoring in every quarter.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by verifying the official game results to confirm whether both the Minnesota and Chicago teams scored in each quarter of the game. The final score will be the determining factor, and the market will settle based on whether the condition of both teams scoring in every quarter was met, as recorded by official game statistics.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Minnesota or Chicago teams would likely have a significant impact, as it affects their offensive capabilities. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be adverse, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public perception, even those unrelated to direct game factors, can also contribute to price movements in this market.