TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:04 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins the final quarter of a football game between Minnesota and Chicago. Each outcome represents different point margins by which one team must lead at the end of the fourth quarter to settle the market.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential at the end of the fourth quarter of the designated Minnesota vs Chicago Pro Football game, with overtime periods excluded from consideration. Chicago must win the quarter by margins exceeding 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for corresponding Yes resolutions, while Minnesota must win by margins exceeding 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored during regulation play in the fourth quarter count toward the final margin calculation, and all markets operate independently with identical timing and scoring rules.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on team performance and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the actual outcome. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts, though both aim to forecast the final 4th quarter spread between Minnesota and Chicago. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, the price of contracts in this market is determined by the forces of supply and demand. Traders actively bid and ask for contracts, expressing their views on the likelihood of different 4th Quarter Spread outcomes for the Minnesota vs Chicago game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific result, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants, offering a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome determined by the official 4th Quarter Spread between Minnesota and Chicago as reported by the NFL. The final score difference will be the basis for determining winning contracts. The resolution process involves verifying the result against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Minnesota or Chicago would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s playing style, could also move the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could influence trader sentiment. Even significant betting patterns observed in traditional sportsbooks might prompt adjustments in this market as traders react to broader market information.