TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 20, 12:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This baseball market tracks individual team run totals for both Minnesota and Arizona in their game on June 19, 2026. Bettors can wager on whether each team will score above specific run thresholds ranging from 1.5 to 7.5 runs.
The market resolves based on the individual run totals scored by Arizona and Minnesota in the Minnesota vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 19, 2026 at 9:45 PM EDT. For Arizona, separate outcomes track whether the team scores 2 or more runs (over 1.5), 3 or more runs (over 2.5), 4 or more runs (over 3.5), 5 or more runs (over 4.5), 6 or more runs (over 5.5), 7 or more runs (over 6.5), or 8 or more runs (over 7.5). For Minnesota, separate outcomes track whether the team scores 2 or more runs (over 1.5), 3 or more runs (over 2.5), 4 or more runs (over 3.5), 5 or more runs (over 4.5), 6 or more runs (over 5.5), 7 or more runs (over 6.5), or 8 or more runs (over 7.5). Each outcome resolves independently based on whether the respective team's final run total meets or exceeds its specified threshold.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on information flow and trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus is strongest or where sharp traders see value. Over time, prediction markets have proven competitive with or more accurate than traditional sportsbooks on similar events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different team total outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices move in real time as new orders flow in, reflecting the collective assessment of likelihood. Each outcome has its own price, typically ranging from near zero to near one hundred cents per share. Traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by taking positions they believe are mispriced relative to the true probability. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tightly prices cluster around fair value.
This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, once the Minnesota vs Arizona game concludes and final team totals are confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. At that point, winning shares are credited based on which team total outcome occurred. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The exact resolution timing depends on when official scoring is finalized and confirmed by the platform.
Key catalysts include injury announcements, lineup changes, and weather updates that affect team performance. Betting market movement and sharp money flowing into sportsbooks often precedes prediction market shifts. Team form, recent scoring trends, and head-to-head matchup history can all influence trader positioning. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions may trigger rapid repricing. As game time approaches, final betting action and expert commentary typically drive late volatility. Monitor sports news and sportsbook line movement to stay ahead of this market's price swings.