TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty?

Volume:
$1,201,851

New York wins by over 9.5 points

 - Kalshi

New York wins by over 9.5 points - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 9:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

New York wins by over 9.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$150,042
N/A
N/A
$60,669
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York wins by over 6.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$137,781
N/A
N/A
$41,061
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York wins by over 3.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87,494
N/A
N/A
$35,634
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York wins by over 12.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77,732
N/A
N/A
$36,027
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York wins by over 1.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$62,139
N/A
N/A
$20,550
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 174.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,168
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 173.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Breanna Stewart: Points O/U 19.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Breanna Stewart: Points O/U 18.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Courtney Williams: Points O/U 15.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kayla McBride: Points O/U 15.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jonquel Jones: Rebounds O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Olivia Miles: Rebounds O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$201,920
N/A
N/A
$74,841
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$176,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$159,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75,208
N/A
N/A
$37,855
Settled
No
kalshi

New York wins by over 15.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,070
N/A
N/A
$8,806
Settled
No
kalshi

Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,920
N/A
N/A
$8,340
Settled
No
kalshi

Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,248
N/A
N/A
$5,169
Settled
No
kalshi

Minnesota wins by over 12.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,540
N/A
N/A
$4,797
Settled
No
kalshi

New York wins by over 21.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,904
N/A
N/A
$1,892
Settled
No
kalshi

New York wins by over 18.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,163
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
No
polymarket

Kayla McBride: Assists O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Intro

This event group tracks player and team performance metrics from the WNBA matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty. The leading outcome, Breanna Stewart points over/under 19.5, shows a consensus probability of 100.0% across Kalshi and Polymarket, aggregated from official WNBA scoring data. Resolution will be determined by final box score statistics published on WNBA.com following the conclusion of the game on July 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers nine separate spread markets with varying thresholds (1.5, 3.5, 6.5, 9.5, 12.5 points) and lacks explicit tie-handling logic. Polymarket defines a single -1.5 spread with clear tie resolution (Liberty wins). Moneyline, totals, and player props are unified.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi's spread markets as independent prop bets on specific margin thresholds, not as direct equivalents to Polymarket's -1.5 spread. For arbitrage or hedging, note that Polymarket's tie clause (resolves Liberty) is absent from Kalshi's spread language. Moneyline and totals markets are safe to cross-reference.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Nine spread markets with thresholds at 1.5, 3.5, 6.5, 9.5, and 12.5 points for both Minnesota and New York. Each market resolves Yes if the specified team wins by more than the threshold. No tie-handling language provided. Example: 'If Minnesota wins...by more than 1.5 points, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single spread market at -1.5 (Minnesota favored). Resolves to Minnesota if they win by 2+ points, otherwise resolves to New York. Explicit tie clause: 'If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to New York Liberty.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 3 at 7:30PM ET: If the Minnesota Lynx win, the market will resolve to "Minnesota Lynx". If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New York Liberty". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

This event comprises multiple point spread markets on the Minnesota vs New York women's professional basketball game scheduled for July 3, 2026. Each market establishes a specific point margin threshold and resolves to Yes if either team wins by more than that margin. Minnesota-favorable spreads range from 1.5 to 12.5 points, while New York-favorable spreads similarly range from 1.5 to 9.5 points. Resolution depends on the final official score differential between the two teams. A win by exactly the specified margin (e.g., Minnesota winning by exactly 3.5 points) would not satisfy any market, as all thresholds require winning by more than the stated amount. If the game is postponed, cancelled, or not completed, or if the official score is unavailable, the market may resolve based on the most recent official league determination or may be voided according to standard sports betting protocols.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. On this market, prices reflect what thousands of traders collectively believe will happen, updated continuously as new information emerges. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance action and lock in margin. Prediction market prices often lead sportsbook adjustments because they aggregate dispersed knowledge in real time. For major WNBA matchups, both venues typically converge, but prediction markets can offer sharper early signals and tighter spreads during high-volume periods.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases and use distinct contract structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket offers a binary outcome contract, while Kalshi focuses on point-spread derivatives, attracting traders with different risk appetites and analytical approaches. Liquidity depth, fee schedules, and regulatory frameworks also vary between platforms. These structural differences mean the same event can trade at slightly different implied probabilities, creating arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated traders and ensuring neither platform fully dominates price discovery.

Key catalysts include injury announcements, roster changes, and recent team performance trends. Betting line movement at major sportsbooks often precedes prediction market shifts, as do updates on player availability and coaching decisions. Weather and travel logistics can subtly influence WNBA outcomes. Social media sentiment and sharp-money positioning sometimes signal informed traders' conviction. Close games in the days leading up to tipoff may also shift market perception of team momentum. Monitor official team communications and credible sports news outlets for developments that could reshape odds before the final buzzer.