TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 90
- Kalshi
Above 90 - Kalshi
1W
News
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Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 6, 2026
Closed: Jul 6, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the animated film Minions & Monsters will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score above 45 as of July 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket shows 100.0% probability for this outcome. The resolution source is the official Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score captured on the specified date and time. Watch for the film's critical reception in the days leading up to July 6, 2026, when the Tomatometer snapshot will determine the final market settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi presents a redundant set of 13 overlapping Yes-conditions without explicit No-resolution logic or data availability fallback, while Polymarket structures discrete threshold markets with clear data retrieval deadlines and default-to-No rules.Hero tip: Polymarket offers superior clarity: four specific thresholds with a 4-day data grace period and explicit No-default if data is unavailable by July 10, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi's 13 conditions are logically redundant (any score above 45 triggers all Yes outcomes) and lack published fallback rules. Confirm Kalshi's data availability and No-resolution protocol before trading.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 13 conditions, all resolving to Yes if Tomatometer exceeds thresholds ranging from 45 to 95 on Jul 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. No explicit No condition, data fallback, or grace period specified. Logic is redundant: any single threshold breach triggers all Yes outcomes.
- Polymarket: Four discrete binary markets (thresholds: 70, 75, 80, 85). Resolves Yes if score is at least the threshold; No otherwise. Explicit fallback: if data unavailable at 10:00 AM ET on July 6, resolution source checked until July 10, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Defaults to No if no data available by deadline.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Minions & Monsters (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on July 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
Resolution will be determined by the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for Minions & Monsters as recorded on Monday, July 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, which is the Monday following the film's wide release. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific threshold, with resolution requiring the Tomatometer score to exceed (not equal) the stated strike value. For example, a final score of 75 would resolve as Yes for all thresholds below 75 and as No for the 75 and above thresholds. The Tomatometer score checked at the specified date and time will be the definitive measure used for all resolution determinations.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, which can produce price gaps on the same underlying event. Kalshi's structure and Polymarket's mechanics may also weight recent trades differently, and variations in how each frames the outcome threshold can shift perceived probabilities. These spreads typically narrow as resolution approaches and new information becomes public, but they create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.
Major catalysts include trailer drops, cast interviews, festival premieres or early screenings, director statements, and comparable box-office or critical performance from recent animated sequels. Production delays or release date shifts can also trigger repricing. As the release date nears, early social media buzz, critic embargo lifts, and advance review aggregation will likely drive the largest swings. Any behind-the-scenes news or franchise-related announcements may shift trader positioning significantly.