TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 9, 9:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball event predicts the margin of victory during the first five innings of the Milwaukee vs St. Louis game on July 9, 2026. Bettors wager on whether one team will lead by more than a specified number of runs after five innings.
The Milwaukee vs St. Louis game scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT will be evaluated based on the score differential after the first 5 innings. St. Louis outcomes resolve to Yes if St. Louis leads by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs after 5 innings. Milwaukee outcomes resolve to Yes if Milwaukee leads by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs after 5 innings. Each outcome is evaluated independently based on the score at the end of the fifth inning. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets like this one are driven by trader conviction and real-money risk. This market aggregates the collective judgment of participants betting their own capital, which can reveal edges that differ from conventional oddsmakers. Comparing the two can highlight where public perception and informed traders disagree on the first-five spread outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers post contracts at their chosen odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the most recent trades and standing orders from active participants. As new information emerges—team news, injury updates, or betting patterns—traders adjust their positions, moving the spread higher or lower. Your entry and exit prices depend on the liquidity and conviction of other traders at any given moment.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once the Milwaukee versus St. Louis game concludes and the first-five-minute spread outcome is verified against credible public sources. The resolution hinges on the official point differential recorded during the opening five minutes of play. Once the result is confirmed and final, the market settles automatically, paying out holders of the correct side and closing positions on the incorrect side.
Key catalysts include roster changes, injury announcements, or late-game lineup adjustments affecting either team's opening-quarter performance. Betting sharp action and public money flow can shift prices as game time approaches. Weather conditions, travel schedules, and recent form trends also influence trader positioning. Additionally, any breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions in the hours before tipoff may trigger repricing. Real-time momentum during the pre-game period often sees the sharpest moves as traders lock in final positions.