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Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Brewers or Cardinals?

Volume:
$108,569

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 9:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$33,373
N/A
N/A
$25,109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,141
N/A
N/A
$10,482
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,033
N/A
N/A
$11,544
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,766
N/A
N/A
$11,777
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,230
N/A
N/A
$6,011
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,912
N/A
N/A
$2,811
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,037
N/A
N/A
$967
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

St. Louis Cardinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET. Polymarket offers winner/draw markets, while Kalshi offers run-total thresholds for combined scoring.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure different dimensions of the same game event. Polymarket resolves on winner/draw status; Kalshi resolves on combined run totals. These are independent settlement values, not contradictory.Hero tip: Understand that these markets are complementary, not overlapping. A Polymarket winner bet and a Kalshi run-total bet can both resolve independently. For example, a 2-1 Brewers victory satisfies Polymarket (Brewers win) and Kalshi thresholds up to 2.5 runs. Use both to build a complete picture of first-5-inning outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Winner/Draw Resolution - Resolves based on which team is ahead or tied after 5 innings. Includes postponement logic (remains open until 5th inning completed) and cancellation logic (50-50 split if no makeup game). Primary source: Official MLB final statistics or credible reporting consensus within 24 hours.
  • Kalshi: Run-Total Thresholds - Seven separate markets, each resolving Yes if combined runs exceed 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, or 6.5 runs in first 5 innings. No explicit postponement or cancellation language provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for July 9 at 7:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Milwaukee vs St. Louis game scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT will be evaluated based on the combined total runs scored by both teams during the first 5 innings. Each threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, and 6.5 runs) is evaluated independently. A Yes resolution requires the combined team total through 5 innings to exceed the specified threshold; totals equal to or below the threshold resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on continuous trader-set pricing rather than fixed sportsbook lines. On decentralized platforms, odds shift dynamically based on real-money bets, often reflecting sharper or more efficient pricing than traditional books, especially for niche props like first-five-innings outcomes. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines to manage liability and hold a fixed margin, while prediction markets reward accurate forecasters directly. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to your sportsbook's moneyline or run-line odds can reveal discrepancies—areas where one side may be undervalued. Early-innings markets tend to be less liquid than full-game markets, so spreads may be wider.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket's broader user base and higher trading volume can lead to faster price discovery, while Kalshi's structure and participant composition may emphasize different risk assessments or information sets. Differences in market depth, fee structures, and settlement mechanics also influence how traders price the same outcome. Additionally, timing lags between platforms mean one may react faster to breaking news or lineup changes. Arbitrage opportunities occasionally emerge when prices diverge significantly, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays typically limit profit potential for retail traders.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and injury reports can significantly shift odds before first pitch. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and recent team performance trends also influence early-innings expectations. Once the game begins, each run scored or out recorded will trigger immediate repricing as traders update their forecasts in real time. Unexpected pitching changes or offensive surges in the first few innings can create sharp moves. Late-breaking news about player availability or umpire assignments may also impact sentiment. Traders monitoring live action and team news feeds often gain an edge by reacting faster than the broader market to these catalysts.