TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC
Volume:
$90,545
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional EFL Championship soccer match between Millwall FC and Derby County FC scheduled for March 10, 2026. Three markets across two platforms assess the outcome: whether Millwall wins, Derby wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on how game cancellation (with no makeup) resolves. Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation, while its win markets resolve No. Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation rule, creating settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Confirm Kalshi's cancellation protocol before match day. If the game is canceled, Polymarket traders will see the draw market pay out Yes and win markets pay out No, but Kalshi's three markets may void or follow a different standard. Hedge or clarify with the platform.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: (1) Draw resolves Yes if match ends level, No otherwise; if canceled with no makeup, resolves Yes. (2) Millwall Win resolves Yes if Millwall wins, No otherwise; if canceled with no makeup, resolves No. (3) Derby Win resolves Yes if Derby wins, No otherwise; if canceled with no makeup, resolves No. All evaluate 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Source: EFL.com.
- Kalshi: Three separate markets covering all outcomes: (1) Millwall Win resolves Yes if Millwall wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. (2) Tie resolves Yes if match ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. (3) Derby Win resolves Yes if Derby wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided; standard Kalshi cancellation protocol applies (typically void or no payout).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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