TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 12:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a UFC fight between Mickey Gall and Sedriques Dumas, focusing on how each fighter might win or if the match ends incompletely. Bettors speculate on whether specific victory conditions or an unresolved result will occur, reflecting the strategic and unpredictable nature of combat sports.
The market resolves based on the specific method of victory or an unresolved outcome in the UFC fight between Mickey Gall and Sedriques Dumas scheduled for September 26, 2026. If either fighter wins by knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), disqualification (DQ), submission, or decision, respective markets resolve accordingly. A draw or no contest also triggers a resolution. The outcome hinges solely on the official result of the bout as recognized by UFC standards. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and to balance action, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the mispricing. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities assigned to different outcomes, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially recorded method of victory for the fight – whether it's a submission, knockout, decision, or other official result. The official result will be used to determine which contract pays out at 100, and all other contracts will be worth $0. Traders should monitor reliable sports news sources for the official announcement following the fight's conclusion.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift the probabilities. Unexpected betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi could also indicate new information or a change in market sentiment. Furthermore, analysis from MMA experts and updated fight previews could influence traders' perceptions and lead to price adjustments. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves leading up to Sep 27, 2026.