TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 8:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game between Michigan State and Notre Dame. It includes scenarios where either team scores first or if no touchdown is scored at all during the game, including any overtime periods. The outcome depends purely on the game's live progression and scoring events.
The event determines whether Notre Dame, Michigan State, or neither team scores the first touchdown in their college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. All touchdowns—including those from offensive, defensive, or special teams plays—are counted, even if they occur in overtime. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original kickoff time, the result will be based on the actual game outcome. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. The event explicitly covers all possible scoring scenarios, ensuring a definitive resolution based on the first scoring play, or the absence thereof, in the full game including any overtime periods.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven purely by individuals willing to buy or sell contracts. If there's a significant discrepancy, it often indicates differing opinions on the likely outcome. Polls and analysts’ predictions can also provide a contrasting viewpoint, but this market offers a unique, financially-motivated perspective on the game's potential first scorer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at 60 means it costs 60 dollars to own a contract that pays out 100 dollars if the corresponding team scores the first touchdown. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ beliefs about the game and their willingness to take the other side of a bet.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team scores the first touchdown in the Michigan State vs Notre Dame game. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and records, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will then be paid out or required to pay based on whether their contracts aligned with the verified result.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Michigan State or Notre Dame would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s offensive style, could also shift the odds. Even pre-game analysis from respected sports commentators or unexpected betting trends in traditional sportsbooks could impact trader behavior and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.