TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 12, 10:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Miami and Leon, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are placed on whether a team will win by a specific number of goals or more.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Miami vs Leon professional Leagues Cup soccer match scheduled for August 12, 2026. All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome scenarios are evaluated: Miami winning by more than 2.5 goals, Miami winning by more than 1.5 goals, Leon winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Leon winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market independently assesses its specific threshold, meaning a single match can potentially satisfy multiple market conditions depending on the goal differential. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect aggregated trader sentiment rather than set benchmarks. In this market, traders may price in factors beyond simple win probabilities, such as recent performance trends or injury updates. While sportsbooks set a fixed spread, prediction markets adjust dynamically based on real-time trading activity, sometimes showing tighter or wider spreads depending on market depth and participant behavior.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through continuous bidding and asking, creating a dynamic spread that shifts with each trade. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of participants about which team will cover the spread on game day. Market depth and volume, indicated by $248,711, also influence how quickly prices adjust to new information or betting patterns.
This market resolves around Aug 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official match result and point differential, which will be checked against widely accepted sports data sources at that time.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or weather conditions could all shift expectations for the game's margin and move this market. Additionally, strong performances in prior matches, media narratives, or betting trends may influence trader sentiment leading up to Aug 13, 2026. Any new information that alters the perceived likelihood of the spread being covered can cause rapid price adjustments in the final days before resolution.