TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event predicts the outcome after exactly 5 innings of play in the July 3, 2026 game. Bettors can choose whether Miami wins, Oakland wins, or the teams are tied after 5 complete innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled game concludes.
Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first 5 innings of the July 3, 2026 game. If Miami has more runs after 5 innings, the Miami outcome resolves to Yes. If Oakland has more runs, the Oakland outcome resolves to Yes. If the teams have equal runs after 5 innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. Game postponements or delays do not affect the market; it remains open until the rescheduled game is completed within two days.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market may show odds that differ from major sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or as different groups of bettors enter the market. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus strongest or where outlier views persist.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers post bids and offers that determine the current odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can execute at posted prices or place limit orders to wait for their target levels. The market price reflects the marginal trade—the last transaction—and adjusts dynamically as new orders flow in. This mechanism ensures prices respond quickly to breaking news, lineup changes, or other game-relevant developments.
Several catalysts can shift odds before this market closes. Lineup announcements, injury reports, or weather updates affecting playing conditions will likely trigger repricing. Betting action from sharp traders or public money can also move prices significantly. As game time nears, any last-minute roster changes or managerial decisions may spark volatility. Once play begins, early inning performance—runs scored, errors, or pitching changes—will drive real-time price swings as traders update their expectations for the full five-inning outcome.