TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 7:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in a college football game between Miami (OH) and Cincinnati. Outcomes are determined by how many points the winning team scores over its opponent, with various thresholds defining different market resolutions.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if Cincinnati exceeds the stated margin when winning, or if Miami (OH) exceeds the stated margin when winning. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing uncertainties.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of many traders. However, there can be differences. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market is driven purely by individuals predicting the outcome. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or as public perception shifts. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Miami vs Cincinnati spread. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations, distinct from fixed-odds betting found elsewhere.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread established by official sources will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will reflect whether Cincinnati wins by more or less than the spread established at the time of resolution. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price.
Several factors could influence the Miami vs Cincinnati spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected weather conditions could also impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and social media discussions, can also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could shift the market price, signaling a change in expectations.