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400,720

Markets across

30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

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Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Volume:
$3,354,951

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 6:40 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$653,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

View
N/A
N/A
—
$4,468
$4,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 8.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$599,159
N/A
N/A
$237,376
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$63,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$202,543
N/A
N/A
$86,031
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$16,761
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$132,578
N/A
N/A
$80,916
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$11,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$97,243
N/A
N/A
$62,465
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$10,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87,029
N/A
N/A
$53,269
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 6.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$16,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 10.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$83,975
N/A
N/A
$56,939
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$3,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77,671
N/A
N/A
$69,323
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
98¢
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,668
N/A
N/A
$10,153
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
98¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,146
N/A
N/A
$8,707
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
98¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$9,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$3,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$3,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 64

Intro

This market tracks the over/under outcome for total runs scored in the first five innings of the June 12, 2026 MLB matchup between the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, the consensus probability for the over/under 2.5 runs outcome stands at 98.0%. Resolution will be determined by official MLB records. Note that a Resolution Divergence Alert is active on this event due to differing settlement thresholds across platforms—review the RDA panel below before placing trades, as the final settlement value may vary depending on which platform's rules apply at the time the game concludes on June 12, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi employs a multi-threshold ladder (2.5 to 12.5 runs) for the same game, while Polymarket uses a single 8.5 threshold. Both are logically valid but create different settlement outcomes for identical game results.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket totals markets as separate products with different payoff structures. A 9-run game triggers Polymarket Over but only Kalshi thresholds 2.5 through 8.5. Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible here due to structural differences, not pricing inefficiency.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Single discrete threshold at 8.5 runs. Over resolves if combined score is 9 or more; Under if less than 9. Applies to June 12 game only.
  • Kalshi: Eleven independent binary markets on run thresholds: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5, 12.5. Each resolves Yes if combined score exceeds that threshold. Same June 12 game.
  • Predict: Moneyline only (Marlins vs Pirates winner). No totals or threshold markets listed. Consistent with Polymarket and Kalshi on game identification and postponement/cancellation rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for June 12 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for June 13 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Miami vs Pittsburgh game scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT will be evaluated for total combined runs scored by both teams. Resolution occurs when the final game score is determined, with separate outcomes corresponding to whether the combined total exceeds 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5, or 12.5 runs. Each threshold represents an independent market outcome; if the combined total is, for example, 7 runs, all outcomes at 6.5 runs or below resolve to Yes, while outcomes requiring 7.5 runs or more resolve to No.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for June 12 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different participant bases, liquidity, and risk appetites. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs in real time. For the Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, prediction market prices may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue attracts sharper action first. Comparing the two reveals arbitrage opportunities and helps you gauge whether public or professional consensus favors one team. Prediction markets typically offer tighter spreads and higher transparency once sufficient volume accumulates.

Key catalysts for the Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates market include injury announcements to star players, bullpen availability, recent team form and win streaks, weather forecasts affecting ballpark conditions, and lineup changes. Trades or roster moves closer to game day can shift sentiment sharply. Starting pitcher matchups and historical head-to-head records also influence trader positioning. Public betting splits and sharp money flows visible on Polymarket and Kalshi often precede price moves. Breaking news about player health, umpire assignments, or travel delays can trigger rapid repricing. Monitor team social media, beat reporters, and Vegas line movements for early signals that prediction market traders may not yet have priced in.