TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$32,375

Philadelphia -1.5 first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 8:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Philadelphia -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,497
N/A
N/A
$10,950
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Miami Marlins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Philadelphia -2.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,691
N/A
N/A
$4,341
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Miami -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,249
N/A
N/A
$2,640
Settled
No
kalshi

Miami -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,921
N/A
N/A
$1,906
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB game scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Kalshi offers binary markets on run-differential thresholds (>1.5 or >2.5 runs), while Polymarket offers a three-way market (Miami win, Philadelphia win, or tie) based on the score at the end of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-differential thresholds (binary outcomes) while Polymarket uses absolute winner determination with a tie option (three-way outcomes). The outcome spaces and resolution criteria are structurally incompatible.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets will resolve identically. Kalshi's four markets each have distinct run-margin triggers; Polymarket's three markets cover all possible end-of-5th-inning states (Miami ahead, Philadelphia ahead, or tied). A close game (e.g., 1-0 Miami) resolves differently across platforms. Verify your position's exposure on each platform independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Four separate binary markets based on run-differential thresholds. Market 1 and 2 resolve Yes if Miami wins by >2.5 or >1.5 runs respectively. Market 3 and 4 resolve Yes if Philadelphia wins by >1.5 or >2.5 runs respectively. All other outcomes (ties, smaller margins) resolve No. Key quote: 'If Miami wins by more than 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-way market with outcomes Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, or Draw. Resolution is based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the end of the 5th inning, not on run margin. Handles postponements by remaining open until the 5th inning is completed; cancellations resolve 50-50. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 15 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Miami vs Philadelphia game scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT will be evaluated based on the run differential at the end of the fifth inning. Philadelphia outcomes resolve to Yes if Philadelphia leads by more than the specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 runs) after five innings. Miami outcomes resolve to Yes if Miami leads by more than the specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 runs) after five innings. Each outcome resolves independently based on the score differential at the end of five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets operate on continuous trader-to-trader pricing rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. On this market, traders adjust odds in real time based on lineup news, weather, bullpen availability, and live action—often moving faster than sportsbooks update their first-five-innings props. Prediction market prices reflect aggregated belief across many participants, while sportsbooks balance liability and margin. For early-inning baseball, prediction markets can offer tighter, more reactive pricing, though liquidity and available bet sizes may differ from traditional books.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics and uses distinct contract designs. Polymarket typically frames the outcome as a binary win condition, while Kalshi may include margin thresholds or run-differential components. Regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases also influence how quickly each platform reprices in response to injury reports or weather delays. These structural differences mean identical underlying events can trade at meaningfully different odds across venues, creating arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, last-minute lineup changes, and weather forecasts affecting playing conditions in Miami or Philadelphia. Injury updates to star hitters or relief arms can shift early-inning edge significantly. Live action—runs scored in the first two innings, early pitcher struggles, or defensive plays—will drive rapid repricing as traders update their models. Pre-game betting action and sharp money flowing into one side can also signal informed positioning, moving odds ahead of first pitch.